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Stock prices rising 2. Strong RSI negative divergence 3. The technical analysis points to at least a mini-crash, and who knows what potential size of a maxi-crash. Note that point 4 on the right sees the price on the weekly chart enter the Ichimoku cloud from the top, which is never a good sign.
I am nearly a perma-bull, but just not right now. Hold on to your pants it is going to be one hell of a ride. Unfortunately for them, this is never going to happen or if it does I will be long gone. Having spent the last 5 years in a bear market this could be something to enjoy. I am remaining neutral on this. We can see the breakaway gap, the continuation gaps, exhaustion and island reversal gaps.
But what does it all mean? I think the future is very bright for the company. As a long-term buy and hold it is a no-brainer to own this stock. But as a trader the short-term is not so bright.
IIFL Market Update
So why not buy today and enjoy the ride upwards tomorrow? The big profits are not made in a day they are in weeks months and years. It is fair comment and well written, but they did not mention the when. And this is a crux of the matter, the best economists in the world never know when. So to all of you out there starting to panic, this is a reminder. When the best companies falter it is a sign for the broader market. With negative divergences on the supporting indicators, price is proving the new short-term downturn.
Supreme court shenanigans, Brexit or trade deal politics do not necessarily explain it. Interest rate hikes go some way towards it, but ultimately it is a traders market. Sometimes a break is needed to catch your breath, sometimes a pause looks like a crash. It is not a crash yet, as we do not have longer-term evidence.
We will see over the next week or two. While Amazon is a great company, no doubt, the technicals tell us that the short term trend is down. Buyers are just not that into you at these prices and PE.
I sold my holding of Amazon last week, so will be waiting for a buy-in over the next weeks, when the market participants change their sentiment. I really enjoyed the last year of owning them. But sometimes even a great relationship needs a break and I took that break last week. Divergent indicators are a first indicator that the relationship is getting tired. Good luck and keep producing fantastic tech.enter
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) Stock Price, Quote, History & News
Incidentally, that was also from the all-time high for the index. Expect some downside in the coming days and weeks. I have marked the potential downside support lines for the next bear move of the Rusell which is leading the pullback. There is, of course, nothing to stop a huge piece of macroeconomic news changing the direction to upwards continuation, but the technicals say otherwise.
Markets are losing impetus at these levels. Here, we can see clearly 3 indicators all different in nature, and they are all diverging with the price direction. Price is moving up. So it is with professional chart analysis, the indicators need to confirm. And right now they suggest a medium term pullback, not today or even tomorrow, but sometime soon. Follow me on TradingView for regular updates liberatedstocktrader. Both lower indicators are not confirming the move which is a concern. I am holding for now, but I have been warned.
FYI the Red Line below indicates a bear market, green indicates a bull market, shock means a warning on the downside. This system is back tested over years and works very well. The market, viewed through the lens of the biggest companies in the U. Interestingly the financial crisis was not due to the overvaluation of the stock market but the integrity of the financial system itself.
But the problem is as of now they are wrong. There is neither fundamental nor technical evidence that the market will go into a meltdown. According to the Economist. But clouds loom. Profits in the oil industry, however, are likely to remain strong, reflecting the effect of production cuts on oil prices.
Using the Liberated Stock Trader Stock Market Crash Detector System , which has successfully predicted all the major stock market crashes since , we see there are no indications at the moment of a severe crash. On all 4 occasions, the crash detector indicated by the horizontal red lines was correct. The little yellow markets underneath the red lines are alert signals, they are triggered when the market prices drop more than a certain percentage in any one week. The key point here is that most people look at the market on a day to day basis, which is entirely pointless. The daily short-term index price movements are like the ripples on the sea.
The medium-term trends weeks to months are like the waves on the sea. However, the long-term trend months to years is the tide. As as we all know the when the tide changes all the waves and ripples move with it. The tide has not changed the market is in an uptrend until the market tells us otherwise. The bears although awake and roaring can go for a further sleep until further notice. It has been a mixed week on the markets, with the major Indexes DJ up 1. What does that tell us? Well, not too much really. There is a lot of talk about a major reversal, but this is just Mr.
Technically we are in a good place, short-term trend Days to Weeks is lateral. Medium-term trend weeks to months is up and so is the long-term Trend months to years.
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There is a slightly negative RSI divergence which could indicate a little retracement of stocks over the next week. These events in this earnings season see the introduction of what the Economist Magazine appropriately calls the Techlash. They are the titans of the new technology-driven world. Our 45 point fundamental comparison of the FAANG stocks Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix Google will explain to you why they are actually in fantastic health and the stock price drop is just another reason to buy.
However, there are been challenges to the FANGS in the last few months that should not go unrecognized. Ultimately with the balance sheets and income these companies have, they can shrug off a lot of pressure.
The Stock Market Crash Shows That When Workers Do Well, Corporations Do Not
As expected the Nasdaq indices have broken new highs. It is a great time and indeed has been a great time over the last 9 years to be an investor in the U. Stock Markets, especially the Nasdaq and to be even more precise the Nasdaq But how are the rest doing? It would seem every one fears the trade war, except the U. Netflix is the new Disney, but better, with a bigger spending budget and much lower overhead. Facebook rode the storm, but I see darker times ahead for the social network.
Why past dividends are no guide to the future
For those who were panicking the fear is slowing ebbing away. However, I was not concerned. As previously stated the U. Economy is in rude health and believe it or not Trump is actually walking a fine line in berating foreign governments over trade, defense spending, and immigration. This is causing foreign powers to consider the U. This could benefit the U. Chart Below shows the Nasdaq Gapping Up today, which is very positive bullish.
All major U. It is completely natural for the market to test new highs, retreat and take another run at it. From my analysis, the market outlook is still positive. So, the media starts churning out articles on Netflix. I actually responded to a reporter from Forbes Magazine on my thoughts on:. This does suggest that Netflix is overvalued, but the reason the stock price is so high is because the growth trajectory Netflix has enjoyed since is huge.
Is there still room for growth for Netflix The driver for long-term growth is in the content business. Companies like Disney make great profits on content and Netflix knows this. Future planned price rises may be a risk, but ultimately the service is fast, the user experience is first class and the content broad and entertaining enough for everyone. Of course, as soon as we hit new highs on the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq , they turn about-face and drive downwards. Trumpian economics is based on smoke and mirrors and this will from time to time cause insecurity in the markets.
Despite Trump not because of him , the U. For Traders, it could be time to employ some short-term and volatility focused short trades. For investors hold tight and grab some bargains as you see fit, there are no signs of the doomsday machine being cranked up. Apple Inc. A great company that continues to defy the odds, and against all expectations continues to drive forward without Steve Jobs. High markets and a strong Apple Fan Community ensures Apple will have to do a lot wrong to lose this market dominance. A company that dominates the retail markets it enters and the biggest retail business on the planet.
With world class logistics and a retail market maker for everything. Add Amazon Prime Delivery, Video not as good as Netflix but trying , Amazon Audible for Audio Content, and even the impressive rise of Alexa smart speakers, Amazon is a company that dominates nearly every market it enters. The only thing that thwarts investors is the insanely high Price Earnings Ratio, currently at But that never really mattered with Amazon, it has always been excessively high, Besos manages to drive business results by substituting huge profits for business growth.
Low margins and continual massive investment in infrastructure and services means market dominance with lower margins. We all know where Alphabet makes its money; online advertising, in fact, it is the biggest advertising agency in the world. It also has the majority of smartphones in the world running Android. But with all that advertising revenue who cares. Despite the rumors, the death of Microsoft has been grossly exaggerated.
Microsoft Office is still in rude health with most corporations and small businesses and everything in between literally running on Microsoft Excel, Powerpoint and Microsoft Exchange. Failures in Smartphone and Tablets have not dented Microsofts long-term outlook. Love it or hate it, and it seems more people are starting to hate it, Facebook is still a huge success. The biggest social network in the world and indeed the biggest website in the world, the recent privacy concerns have not even made a dent in the stock price.
Exchanges and Indices over the last 20 years. It is because these companies defy traditional business models and can generate outsize profits and growth by utilizing technology. The Dot. The VIX Volatility Index has also averaged 13 over the last 4 weeks which indicates increased stability. The U. Markets continue their sideways momentum, with bulls and bears maintaining their fight for dominance.
There is no terribly bad macroeconomic news. So, no crisis here either. The Dow Jones 30 is finding a channel bottom at 23, and is testing the days moving average, we do not want to see that base broken as it would be a bullish sign. I recently provided feedback to a reporter on the question of bad stock advice. I think my reply will be of interest to you.
My advise if you want to invest in individual stocks is do your due diligence and invest in great U. As the fears of a possible crushing trade war start to recede, the TV talking heads on Bloomberg are now suggesting the recent pullback in the U. There may be an element of truth to this speculation, but the fact is the market is not really overpriced right now. Sure is has risen constantly over the last 7 year, but so has the market and earnings. It is simply a sign that the outlook for the markets is still strong.
The market knows, though, and it seems it reflected this immediately. Record low unemployment might be good campaign copy, but it can be bad for bottom lines. For one thing, when companies pay their workers higher wages it might result in lower profits down the line. But on a larger scale, and this seems to be what investors got skittish about, higher wages mean more money will be moving around in the U.
Broadly speaking, the more dollars there are out there makes each dollar worth a little less. The pool of money gets diluted. And now we do. These recent inflation fears had consequences for the bond market. It became less about real people and more about faceless, abstract people and things that shape our economy. Look at those two trends: More jobs; more money. But in a general corporate financial sense, neither are actually good. After all, the stock market has been booming, but at the same time so has the wealth gap.
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More depressing stats here. In fact, his voters were more wealthy than Clinton voters. And they got it: The GOP recently passed what they billed as tax cuts for working Americans, but which really stuff the pockets of corporations and the super rich. The irony — and the worry, it now seems to be — is that not only is this a shit policy for working Americans, but its corporate effects might also be shit. The economy has expanded almost to capacity, and in response the GOP has enacted expansionist policy. And Trump wants even more GDP growth. First, the tight labor market.
Second, wages versus corporate earnings. Now that political instability has ossified and crisis is all but inevitable, things look shaky indeed.